AI Infrastructure · Equity
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
BGAM™ SCORE
85.65
BGAM-SC-v1.0 total score
Quality (ex-valuation): 87.94
WatchBGAM VIEW
High structural quality; entry price, cycle and concentration risk assessed together. No automatic score threshold applied; Watch is not a buy order.
DECISION CONFIDENCE
Orta
VALUATION INDICATOR
23.47x — ADR EPS USD; Fiyat / (son çeyrek EPS × 4)
Score Breakdown
Advanced node and HPC demand support growth.
Critical foundry enabling advanced manufacturing for multiple designers.
Manufacturing scale, process knowledge and customer integration are strong.
Net cash and cash generation provide a high buffer.
2nm revenue contribution and advanced node mix support leadership.
ADR quarterly EPS annualised proxy approximately 23.5x; need for geopolitical discount persists.
High FCF is positive; fab capital needs and capacity utilisation are determining factors.
Taiwan concentration is a tail risk that cannot be resolved by economic quality alone.
Advanced process and packaging optionality support innovation.
Exceeding revenue guidance is positive; initial production of new nodes dilutes margin.
Conditional Scenarios
Conditional analyst scenarios; no numerical terminal price or probability generated. Not a substitute for a full valuation model.
Demand growth slows; margin or multiple pressure limits shareholder return.
Current product and customer position is maintained; growth gradually converts to cash generation.
New product and capacity gains deliver sustainable per-share cash growth.
Investment Drivers
2nm scaling and HPC demand
Packaging and geographic capacity diversification
Q4 guidance and margin preservation
Risk Radar
Catalyst Timeline 2026–2030
2nm scaling and Q4 guidance
Packaging and geographic capacity diversification; return conditional
VERIFIED FINANCIAL FINDINGS
October 15 announcement: Q3 net revenue $46.72B, YoY USD growth 41.2%; gross margin 66.4%. ADR EPS $4.60; 2nm share 8%, 7nm and below 79%; HPC 68%. Net cash reserve TWD 2,985.40B. Q3 CFO TWD 919.77B and capex TWD 443.21B; FCF TWD 476.56B. Q4 revenue guidance $52.3–54.3B; gross margin 65–67%.
VALUATION INDICATOR
23.47x. Q3 2026 EPS per ADR USD; not to be confused with ordinary Taiwan shares. Price / (most recently reported quarterly EPS × 4). Not TTM or forward P/E, fair value, or price target; does not normalise for growth, seasonality, or one-off items.
KAYNAKLAR / SOURCES
Update note: New analyst assessment dated 22 October 2026; prior web card not mechanically carried over. All sub-scores are analyst judgement.
Research Disclosure: BGAM scores and scenarios are analyst assessments. This material is provided for research and information purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.