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Historical illustrative dataset — live update pending

All macro indicator values on this page are illustrative and based on analyst estimates as of the research date. They have not been validated against live data sources. Values will be updated after source-linked data entry and analyst review.

BGAM™ MACRO REGIME MONITOR — RESEARCH MODE

Macro Dashboard

A structured view of the global macro regime across five analytical dimensions. Updated after analyst review. Not investment advice.

OVERALL REGIMERisk-On Constructive
Updated August 2026

Three of five regime indicators are in constructive territory. Global liquidity is expanding, real rates are declining and the dollar is weakening — historically the most favourable combination for risk assets and commodities. Note: all values are illustrative and pending live-data revalidation.

Regime Indicators

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

+8.2%Global M2 YoY
Not Evaluated
Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

Live market-data connection pending

No verified price available. Instrument: XAU/USD · Gold Spot · USD per troy ounce. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry and analyst review.

Expanding

Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

Global M2 money supply is expanding at an estimated 8.2% year-on-year, driven by coordinated monetary easing across the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan. Expanding liquidity is historically the single most important driver of risk asset performance. Note: this value is illustrative and pending source-linked verification.

US M2 GROWTH

+6.8% YoY

GLOBAL M2 GROWTH

+8.2% YoY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$7.1T

GLOBAL CB ASSETS

$28.4T

IMPLICATION

Expanding global liquidity supports equities, commodities and gold. Maintain risk-on positioning. All values pending live-data revalidation.

INFLATION PRESSURE

3.1%US CPI YoY
Not Evaluated
Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

Live market-data connection pending

No verified price available. Instrument: XAU/USD · Gold Spot · USD per troy ounce. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry and analyst review.

Moderating

Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

US CPI has moderated from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to an estimated 3.1%, but remains above the Fed's 2% target. Services inflation remains sticky at an estimated 4.2%, while goods deflation is providing partial offset. The disinflation trend is intact but fragile. Note: all values are illustrative.

US CPI

3.1% YoY

CORE PCE

2.6% YoY

SERVICES CPI

4.2% YoY

5Y BREAKEVEN

2.4%

IMPLICATION

Inflation is moderating but above target. Fed easing cycle continues but pace is constrained. Monitor services inflation closely. All values pending live-data revalidation.

REAL INTEREST RATES

+0.5%US 10Y Real Rate
Not Evaluated
Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

Live market-data connection pending

No verified price available. Instrument: XAU/USD · Gold Spot · USD per troy ounce. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry and analyst review.

Declining

Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

US 10-year real rates have declined from +2.5% in late 2023 to an estimated +0.5%, driven by the Fed's 200bp easing cycle. Declining real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and other non-yielding assets, and support equity valuations. Note: all values are illustrative.

US 10Y REAL RATE

+0.5%

FED FUNDS RATE

3.75–4.00%

TIPS 10Y YIELD

+0.5%

RATE CUTS DELIVERED

200bp

IMPLICATION

Declining real rates are constructive for gold, commodities and growth equities. The easing cycle has further to run. All values pending live-data revalidation.

DOLLAR REGIME

98.4DXY Index
Not Evaluated
Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

Live market-data connection pending

No verified price available. Instrument: XAU/USD · Gold Spot · USD per troy ounce. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry and analyst review.

Weakening

Illustrative — Not Live Market Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined an estimated 12% from its 2022 peak of 114.8 to 98.4. Dollar weakness reflects the narrowing US-global rate differential and growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability. A weaker dollar is structurally positive for commodities and emerging markets. Note: all values are illustrative.

DXY INDEX

98.4

FROM 2022 PEAK

-12.2%

EUR/USD

1.118

US FISCAL DEFICIT

$1.8T

IMPLICATION

Dollar weakness is constructive for gold, copper and emerging market assets. Monitor US fiscal trajectory as primary risk. All values pending live-data revalidation.

GOLD REGIME

—XAU/USD — USD/oz
Not Evaluated
Pending Revalidation

Live market-data connection pending

No verified price available. Instrument: XAU/USD · Gold Spot · USD per troy ounce. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry and analyst review.

Market Data Unavailable

Pending revalidation — observation timestamp not recorded. Price will be displayed after source-linked entry with verified date-time stamp and analyst review.

Gold Spot (XAU/USD) price is pending revalidation. A reference value was noted but the exact observation timestamp was not recorded; per BGAM data governance rules, an unverified timestamp cannot be displayed as last_verified. No BGAM signal, trend, or regime call will be published until a live or delayed data source is connected, the price is source-linked with a verified date-time stamp, and reviewed by an analyst.

XAU/USD SPOT

Pending

Pending revalidation — observation timestamp not recorded

YTD PERFORMANCE

Pending

Requires verified price series

IMPLICATION

Gold regime analysis is suspended. No directional implication will be published until XAU/USD price, source, and instrument type are verified by an analyst.

Regime Matrix

CONDITIONCURRENT STATEIMPLICATIONWEIGHT
Global LiquidityExpandingRisk-On
Inflation TrendModeratingNeutral
Real RatesDecliningRisk-On
Dollar TrendWeakeningRisk-On
Credit SpreadsTightRisk-On
Earnings GrowthPositiveRisk-On
Geopolitical RiskElevatedCautious
ValuationStretchedCautious

Asset Class Implications

AI SemiconductorsConstructive

Liquidity expansion + AI capex cycle sustains structural demand

GoldConstructive

Declining real rates + dollar weakness + CB accumulation

CopperConstructive

Dollar weakness + electrification demand + supply deficit

UraniumConstructive

Energy security + AI power demand + structural supply deficit

US EquitiesNeutral

Liquidity supportive but stretched valuations limit upside

US TreasuriesCautious

Fiscal deficit expansion + inflation risk limits duration appeal

Research Disclosure: BGAM™ Macro Dashboard indicators are model-based analytical assessments. All values are illustrative and for research purposes only. This is a historical illustrative dataset — live update pending. Values are updated after analyst review, not in real time. Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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