AI Infrastructure · Equity
NVIDIA Corporation
BGAM™ SCORE
87
BGAM-SC-v1.0 total score
Quality (ex-valuation): 90
WatchBGAM VIEW
High structural quality; entry price, cycle and concentration risk assessed together. No automatic score threshold applied; Watch is not a buy order.
DECISION CONFIDENCE
Orta
VALUATION INDICATOR
25.00x — Fiyat / (son çeyrek düzeltilmiş EPS × 4)
Score Breakdown
AI infrastructure demand and 106% growth; sustainability of pace is uncertain.
High shared infrastructure role across compute, networking and software.
CUDA ecosystem provides switching cost; custom ASIC competition continues.
High operating profit provides a buffer; supply commitments to be monitored separately.
Rubin and full-system approach is strong; company benchmark claims are not independent proof of superiority.
Approximately 25x adjusted last-quarter annualised earnings; not a cheapness or intrinsic value conclusion.
Fabless structure and high margin are advantages; infrastructure financing may increase capital needs.
China export restrictions and Asia manufacturing dependency are significant.
Inference, agents and physical AI optionality is broad.
Delivery scale is strong; new platform transition and collection testing ongoing.
Conditional Scenarios
Conditional analyst scenarios; no numerical terminal price or probability generated. Not a substitute for a full valuation model.
Demand growth slows; margin or multiple pressure limits shareholder return.
Current product and customer position is maintained; growth gradually converts to cash generation.
New product and capacity gains deliver sustainable per-share cash growth.
Investment Drivers
AI infrastructure demand and data centre growth
CUDA ecosystem and switching cost
Rubin architecture and full-system approach
Inference, agents and physical AI optionality
Risk Radar
Catalyst Timeline 2026–2030
Rubin deliveries and gross margin preservation
Inference/agent usage converting to revenue and cash
VERIFIED FINANCIAL FINDINGS
August 26 announcement: Q2 revenue $96.221B; YoY growth 106%. Data center $89B; gross margin 75%. GAAP EPS $2.46; adjusted EPS $2.22. Q3 revenue guidance $108B ±2%; no China data center compute revenue assumed.
VALUATION INDICATOR
25.00x. FY2027 Q2 adjusted diluted EPS USD. Price / (most recently reported quarterly EPS × 4). Not TTM or forward P/E, fair value, or price target; does not normalise for growth, seasonality, or one-off items.
KAYNAKLAR / SOURCES
Update note: New analyst assessment dated 22 October 2026; prior web card not mechanically carried over. All sub-scores are analyst judgement.
Research Disclosure: BGAM scores and scenarios are analyst assessments. This material is provided for research and information purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.