Digital Infrastructure · Equity
Fastly
BGAM™ SCORE
63.95
BGAM-SC-v1.0 total score
Quality (ex-valuation): 66.06
NeutralBGAM VIEW
Security revenue and expansion within existing customers support conversion. Durable value creation should be measured by positive cash margin and per-share profitability.
DECISION CONFIDENCE
Orta
VALUATION INDICATOR
44.81x non-GAAP — Fiyat / FY2026 non-GAAP EPS rehberlik ortası
Score Breakdown
Revenue growing 23.3%, security 43%.
Digital delivery/security is necessary; multiple providers exist.
NRR 117%; top-10 customers 37%, pricing pressure risk.
USD 337.5 million liquid assets / USD 330 million notes; GAAP loss.
Edge/security platform; independent superiority benchmarking is limited.
21 October price / FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint: 44.81x.
FCF margin ~2%; stock-based compensation and capex are significant.
Digital distribution advantage; data regulation and outage risk.
Security/edge cross-sell potential; monetisation under test.
Part of margin improvement is from a change in depreciation estimate.
Conditional Scenarios
Conditional analyst scenarios; no numerical terminal price or probability generated. Not a substitute for a full valuation model.
Competition pressures pricing; cash margin does not improve.
Security growth continues; cash margin gradually improves.
Cross-sell and margin expansion convert to per-share earnings.
Investment Drivers
Cross-selling security products to existing customer base
Usage and spend growth per customer
Gross margin expansion converting to cash and per-share earnings
Risk Radar
Catalyst Timeline 2026–2030
Security growth and cash margin
Per-share profitability and debt management
VERIFIED FINANCIAL FINDINGS
Q2 2026 revenue USD 183.3 million (+23.3% YoY); security revenue +43%. NRR 117%; top-10 customers 37%. Liquid assets USD 337.5 million; USD 330 million convertible notes; GAAP loss.
VALUATION INDICATOR
21 October price / FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint: 23.30 / 0.52 = 44.81x. Not a standard P/E given GAAP loss; stock-based compensation monitored separately.
KAYNAKLAR / SOURCES
Update note: 20 October sub-scores retained; new financial data and valuation indicator review did not require a score change. Sub-scores are analyst judgement.
Research Disclosure: BGAM scores and scenarios are analyst assessments. This material is provided for research and information purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.