Energy Infrastructure · Equity
Bloom Energy
BGAM™ SCORE
68.55
BGAM-SC-v1.0 total score
Quality (ex-valuation): 73.94
WatchBGAM VIEW
AI data centre power demand is a strong growth area. Shareholder returns require delivery converting to cash and customer base broadening; current price narrows the margin of safety.
DECISION CONFIDENCE
Orta
VALUATION INDICATOR
88.34x — 21 Ekim fiyatı / FY2026 düzeltilmiş EPS rehberlik ortası
Score Breakdown
Q2 growth 165.5%; long-term continuity not yet evidenced.
On-site power generation can reduce grid wait times.
System and service capability is an advantage; single customer 73%.
Cash is close to debt; advances play a high role within CFO.
Fuel cell platform is strong; independent technology benchmarking is absent.
21 October price / FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint: 88.34x. Premium is high; this is not a fair value calculation.
Advances and USD 306.5 million customer consideration to be monitored separately.
Energy permits and customer/supply concentration to be monitored.
Product scaling and energy use cases; monetisation is conditional.
Growth/guidance is strong; delivery and collection intensity.
Conditional Scenarios
2030 numerical scenarios removed from the public card pending completion of debt, lease and dilution reconciliation. Does not imply a zero target price.
Capacity growth does not convert to collections; margin and multiple contract.
Cash conversion gradually improves as deliveries increase.
Customer diversification and service scale deliver sustained margin.
Investment Drivers
Data centre power demand and grid connection delays
Modular installation saving time for customers
Service revenues and installed base expansion
Risk Radar
Catalyst Timeline 2026–2030
Delivery, advance payments and collections
Capacity investment
Service revenue and customer diversification
VERIFIED FINANCIAL FINDINGS
Q2 revenue USD 1.065 billion; gross margin 33.4%. Q3 announcement after US close on 22 October; this card does not include Q3 results.
VALUATION INDICATOR
21 October price / FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint: 238.53 / 2.70 = 88.34x. Premium is high; this is not a fair value calculation.
Q3 açıklaması 22 Ekim ABD kapanışı sonrası; bu kart Q3 sonucunu içermez.
KAYNAKLAR / SOURCES
Update note: 20 October sub-scores retained; new financial data and valuation indicator review did not require a score change. Sub-scores are analyst judgement.
Research Disclosure: BGAM scores and scenarios are analyst assessments. This material is provided for research and information purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.