AI Infrastructure · Equity
ASML Holding
BGAM™ SCORE
86.05
BGAM-SC-v1.0 total score
Quality (ex-valuation): 90.06
WatchBGAM VIEW
High structural quality; entry price, cycle and concentration risk assessed together. No automatic score threshold applied; Watch is not a buy order.
DECISION CONFIDENCE
Orta
VALUATION INDICATOR
28.81x — Fiyat / (son çeyrek temel EPS × 4; EUR→USD 1,1234)
Score Breakdown
AI fab investment is driving demand; risk of order deferrals exists.
Advanced lithography is a critical input to semiconductor manufacturing.
EUV knowledge and supply network create a high entry barrier.
Liquidity and 57.5% gross margin are strong; cash needs of capacity ramp to be monitored.
EUV/High-NA roadmap supports a high-technology role.
Approximately 28.8x when reported quarterly EPS is annualised; normalised earnings may be lower.
Service/upgrade revenue is an advantage; capacity investments may delay returns.
China sales permits and the investment cycle of a small number of large customers are risks.
High-NA and productivity improvements represent new revenue areas.
Delivery and margin progress are positive; capacity ramp risk continues.
Conditional Scenarios
Conditional analyst scenarios; no numerical terminal price or probability generated. Not a substitute for a full valuation model.
Demand growth slows; margin or multiple pressure limits shareholder return.
Current product and customer position is maintained; growth gradually converts to cash generation.
New product and capacity gains deliver sustainable per-share cash growth.
Investment Drivers
AI fab investment and EUV demand
High-NA roadmap and service revenues
Meeting Q4 and 2026 guidance
Risk Radar
Catalyst Timeline 2026–2030
Meeting delivery and margin guidance
Capacity growth
High-NA adoption; customer interest is not a firm order
VERIFIED FINANCIAL FINDINGS
October 14 announcement: Q3 net sales €11.662B, gross margin 57.5%, net income €4.960B, basic EPS €12.95. Cash and short-term investments €12.735B. Q4 net sales guidance €14.2–15.2B; 2026 full-year €44–45B.
VALUATION INDICATOR
28.81x. Q3 2026 basic EPS EUR; USD equivalent at ECB October 21 rate of 1.1234 USD/EUR. Price / (most recently reported quarterly EPS × 4). Not TTM or forward P/E, fair value, or price target; does not normalise for growth, seasonality, or one-off items.
KAYNAKLAR / SOURCES
Update note: New analyst assessment dated 22 October 2026; prior web card not mechanically carried over. All sub-scores are analyst judgement.
Research Disclosure: BGAM scores and scenarios are analyst assessments. This material is provided for research and information purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.